National home sales and prices are up, according to the latest data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association – but as you may or may not know, there’s no such thing as a “national housing market.” Real estate is local, and conditions can vary dramatically from coast to coast, between cities and even from one neighbourhood to the next. To help give you a better view of what’s happening closer to home, here are seven important Toronto real estate statistics that will be relevant to your home hunt.
77,435 – the number of people that moved to Toronto between July 2017 and July 2018.
Sound high? That’s because it is. In fact, according to research from Ryerson University, Toronto is now the #1 fastest-growing city in all of North America. Meanwhile, the GTA is North America’s second-fastest growing metropolitan area. While this doesn’t directly qualify as one of Toronto real estate statistics, you can bet that this number will directly impact the city’s housing market. Let’s flash back to high school Economics 101. In theory, as the population continues to increase, housing demand will rise, exerting pressure on Toronto’s housing supply, which impact prices.
88% – the proportion of GTA markets that saw an increase in detached home sales.
As far as real estate statistics go, this one is a bit of a surprise for Toronto, given the growing popularity of condos in recent years. The trend is largely due to the affordability they offer in relation to their detached counterparts. But it appears Toronto’s appetite for detached houses is here to stay. RE/MAX examined the detached housing market in the 65 Toronto Real Estate Board districts between 2018 and 2019 (which include areas in the 416 and the 905) and found that not only were detached home sales up, but so too were detached prices in 51 per cent of markets. To get a bit more granular, markets in the 905 experienced the greatest gains in detached home-buying activity, with all 30 out of 30 areas reporting an increase in unit sales. In the 416, 20 of the TREB’s 35 districts experienced increased sales.
10.1% – the slice of total market share captured by Halton Region.
Apparently, west really is best! While Halton Region isn’t technically part of Toronto, the area is quickly becoming home to many move-over buyers struggling with housing un-affordability in The Six. RE/MAX examined GTA sales trends between 2013 and 2018, and found a rising share of homebuyers migrating westward. Halton – which includes Burlington, Oakville, Halton Hills and Milton – saw the biggest gains in sales, rising 2.3 per cent to 10.1 per cent of total market share. Meanwhile, Toronto West climbed almost one per cent, to 10.5 per cent.
76.2% – the increase in detached sales seen in some Scarborough neighbourhoods.
Scarborough was named one of Toronto’s most affordable neighbourhoods, and the region ranked high on RE/MAX’s 2019 liveability scorecard. Indeed, Scarborough’s E05 district, comprised of the L’Amoreaux, Tam O’Shanter-Sullivan and Steeles neighbourhoods, saw the biggest increase in detached house sales (yes, the demand for detached here is hot!) which rose a whopping 76.2 per cent from 2018 to 2019.
1.75% – the Bank of Canada’s key overnight interest rate.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained its key interest rate at 1.75 per cent for the seventh straight time, in its September 4 interest rate announcement. The US-China trade war has weakened the global economy, but Canada seems to be chugging along at a decent pace. Wages are up, according to the BoC’s press release, and “housing activity has regained strength more quickly than expected as resales and housing starts catch up to underlying demand, supported by lower mortgage rates.” With the next interest rate announcement coming up on October 20 (click here for the upcoming interest rate announcement on October 30), the BoC will continue to watch global developments and evaluate their impact on Canada’s economy. This seemingly small stat is definitely one to watch, since even a small move up or down can mean thousands of dollars – particularly in Toronto, where housing prices are among the highest in the country.
$789,000 – the proposed threshold for Toronto homebuyers to qualify for the FTHBI.
According to the most current data from the Toronto Real Estate Board, the average price of a home in Toronto increased by 3.6 per cent year-over-year. As Torontonians continue to grapple with housing affordability, the Trudeau Liberals recently implemented the First Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI) on September 2, and since then they have proposed changes to the program (if elected in the upcoming federal election on October 21) that would raise the threshold for Toronto properties.
2% – the forecasted average price increase for Toronto homes in 2019.
Toward the end of last year, RE/MAX released our 2019 Housing Market Outlook and made some forward-looking statements around housing activity at the national and local level. In Toronto, prices were anticipated to increase by two per cent between 2018 and 2019, in the wake of a four-per-cent decrease from 2017 to 2018. Keep an eye open for our 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report, to find out how close we came to the mark.
This article was originally published on September 27th, 2019 by Lydia McNutt of RE/MAX Integra.